"I don't mop up for anybody."

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Mariano Rivera's Record...A Rant about Saves

I saw on Twitter this afternoon (apologize for not linking as I couldn't find the exact tweet, but do remember the exact numbers and verified it here) that since the beginning of 1996, the Pirates as a team via numerous closers have 592 saves. Mariano Rivera in that same time period has 597 of his newly record breaking 602 saves.

This was shocking to me intitially, but the more I thought about it, the more it made sense and further exposed probably the most ridiculous stat in baseball. 

The Yankees have obviously been much much better than the Pirates since 1996. How are the save totals (just guessing but Rivera has probably 90-95% of the Yankee saves) so close? Easy. Just about every team is going to get a whole bunch of saves at some point in the season no matter what happens due to the nature of the baseball season. Its just a matter of who gets them. 

Rivera deserves a ton of credit for consistency and mostly good health since 1996 but someone was going to get those saves for the Yankees. No matter what the media will have you believe, most relief pitchers can hold a 2 or 3 run lead for one inning the overwhelming majority of the time. Research that I don't feel like looking up right now puts that percentage at 90+ . 

The "closer mentality" is a myth that ends up hurting teams who refuse to use their closer in the true spot that would save the game. This is often way before the 9th inning (ex. 2 on with no outs in the 7th or 8th inning) but the manager "can't" use the closer in a non-save situation cause then who will work the 9th? After all, its been "proven" that not just anyone can get those last three outs. And more importantly, what will the home stadium play to fire up the crowd if the closer isn't coming in to his entrance music?

Back to Rivera....He is a very good pitcher and undoubtedly the best closer of all time. I am just not sure what that really means with the way closers are used these days. Of course, I would much rather have him hold the saves record than a guy who let up back to back game losing 9th inning homeruns to Ryan Doumit (Trevor Hoffman). However, Rivera is not anywhere near a first ballot Hall of Famer. How many games did he TRULY add to the Yankees win column over the years? Based on how close the number of saves are between a good team and bad team in a 15 year period, I am extremely hesitant to put any relievers in the Hall of Fame....

Addendum: This is all Tony Larussa's fault. He created the modern one inning save situation and closer in the late 80s and early 90s with Dennis Eckersley. Just one more reason to dislike Larussa and his over-managing.

Addendum #2: Further proof of the ridiculousness of saves. 13th on the all times saves list with a decent chance to get to the top 6? Francisco Cordero. I don't think Reds' fans even have faith in him. Oh, and 14th is Jose Mesa.



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