Have a Safe Trip, Don't Hurry Back?

Maybe Anthony should leave the country more often?....On the first day he is gone, the Pirates go out and destroy the Cubs 11-1 for their first blowout victory of the year.  If him leaving is what it takes to get the Bucs rolling and winning a game by more than a run or two, I'll take that trade off. Nicaragua can have him....

How about Anthony's favorite Bucco whipping boy Andy Laroche? He walked 3 times and scored 3 runs in the blowout. He's holding steady at .320/.407/.467 for a .874 OPS with 3 homeruns.

Jason Bay? Now .238/.345/.376 with one home run and a .721 OPS.

I know, I know....Its way early, small sample size for the stats, etc...But let's enjoy it anyway.

Don't go Birdside, go Bayside!

Brian argued that the Pirates may have the last laugh in the Jason Bay trade. Let me see if I capture the essence of your argument, Bird.

We have a 3rd basemen who might be a good enough hitter that if he gets moved second base might be top five in the National League? And a pitcher that we hope no longer stinks in A-ball? (But look at the guy's picture... I can't wait to root for that.)

Weaker than the bones of your air-friendly skeleton, Birdman. And you completely lost me with the stats... weren't you the guy just chiding Anthony about sample size?

You're right that Jason Bay has some flaws. But no list of these flaws would include "wasn't a huge trading chip in 2008." Think of it in reverse: if the Pirates wanted to move LaRoche and Morris today for a proven player, what could they get? Not Franklin Gutierrez, and certainly not Cliff Lee, who were offered together by Cleveland for Bay and Ronny bleepin' Paulino. The Pirates thought they deserved more and nixed it.

Oh, by the way - if you've got twenty bucks, I've got a paper and pencil that could be an OK letter someday.

Can You 302 A Bird?

Bird still defends the Jason Bay trade. Give me 2 minutes to tell you why Bird should be 302'd.

In 2008, Pirates G.M. Neal Huntington traded Jason Bay for 4 players: Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Bryan Morris, and Craig Hansen.

In his only full season with the Boston Red Sox, Bay hit 36 Homeruns, had 119 RBI's, and had an OPS of .921. He was 7th in the A.L. MVP voting.

Last year, the prize of the return--LaRoche, hit .258, had 12 Homeruns, and had an OPS of .731. Those below-average numbers actually trumped his 2008 post-trade performance, when he hit .152 in 49 games. (consider, too, that it's only a matter of time before he gets booted from 3rd base).

LaRoche has been a gem compared to Moss, who hit .236 last year with 7 Homeruns. After clearing waivers, he's now playing ball in AAA! WOOHOO!!!

(Miss me yet? Photo: David Littlefield)

Morris is a 23 year-old pitching in A ball. (what does that tell you?) He also has an attitude problem. Fabulous.

As for Hansen, well, he didn't exactly dominate in the second half of 2008 with the Pirates. He was 1-4 with a 7.47 ERA, and he walked 20 batters in 15.2 innings. In 2009, he became a pain in the neck and may never pitch again. (if he does, watch out for him and that 7.47 ERA!)

Way to wheel and deal, Neal.

So, there you have it. For one of the best players in the major leagues, the Pirates got basically nothing in return. It's one thing to shrug it off, but you've got to be crazy to defend the trade like Bird does.

Quick...you get his arms and I'll hold his legs. Now what's the quickest way to Western Psych?

Properly Evaluating the Jason Bay Trade

July 31st, 2008. The Pirates trade Jason Bay to the Red Sox. The Red Sox send Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers and Craig Hansen/Brandon Moss to the Pirates. The Dodgers send Andy Laroche and Bryan Morris to the Pirates.

The trade was initially viewed as a win for the Pirates by the national media. However, because of Moss' struggles, a freak nerve disorder to Hansen, Morris' rough 2009, and Laroche not being Mike Schmidt at 3B in his first year in the majors (not to mention being the brother of a guy who wasn't the most popular Bucco), it has seemingly been "officially" ruled a disaster of epic proportions by most.

However, I do not think it is that simple. As trades for multiple prospects often do over time, this one might ultimately end up in the Bucs' favor after all.

How you ask? An update on the important players in the trade:

-Jason Bay left the Red Sox in Winter 2009 and signed with the Mets. All in all, the Red Sox got what they expected offensively from Bay, but watched him play defense that can be nicely described as "statuesque" in the tiny Fenway Park LF. Not so nicely put...he made Manny Ramirez look like Roberto Clemente out there. The Red Sox were unwilling to offer the number of years Bay wanted due to concerns they had regarding his knees. I think its fair to say the Pirates should not have kept a guy with questionable knees to patrol the giant LF at PNC Park for years to come, no matter what he brought offensively. Well, at least not for the money the Mets gave him. By the way, the 31 year old Bay has a .774 OPS and 1 homerun so far in 2010.

-Andy Laroche seems to only be getting better and at age 26 should be just now coming into his prime. He is hitting .323 with a .397 OBP in 2010. If he stays anywhere near those numbers (or even .280 with a .350 or so OBP) after a likely move to 2B when Pedro Alvarez comes up, he could be an all star and top five second baseman in the National League. 2B who can hit are not easy to find. From a pure "Wins above Replacement Player" view, Laroche added 2.5 wins to the Pirates total in 2009. He could end up close to the 5.0 wins Bay added to Boston last year by the time 2010 is over.

-Bryan Morris may have turned the corner. After a rough 2009 that included a short team imposed suspension, he has been almost unhittable in 2010. He has a 0.98 ERA in 27 2/3 innings with 26 Ks and 3 walks. Looking at his numbers, the suspension might actually have been the wake up call he needed. He will soon be in AA and could be on target for a late 2011 call up. He just turned 23 in March.

So in 2011 or 2012, the Pirates could very well have an above average starting 2B and a #2 or #3 starter (anything from Moss or Hansen is a bonus) for a guy who was involved with one playoff series victory in Boston and likely had no future in Pittsburgh. That seems like a pretty good trade return to me.

Neil Huntington only had one great trading chip -more on that some other time- is his quest to rebuild the Pirates. He cashed it in and I think there is a good chance he ultimately has the last laugh.....