Fly Like a Butterfly and Sting like THE BEAST

I was thinking tonight about all of Butler, PA's, quasi-celebrities.

There's Bret Michaels, Terry Hanratty, the Saul brothers, Matt Clement, Khalil Greene, and Eric Namesnik. Also, I swear that half the residents of Butler claim to be distantly related to Big John Studd. (Apparently, Mr. Studd has more relatives than the biblical Adam.)

For those of you who are already getting nostaligic, I'll throw in the dude who used to run Aland's Toyland, too. Happy now?

But Butler truly does have a claim to fame now...and he's a BEAST. The most accomplished athlete in Butler's history is boxer, Brian "The Beast" Minto.

On May 1st, in Germany, Minto is going to be fighting Marco Huck for the Cruiserweight Title. I'm not saying that you need to fly to Germany to support Minto, or that you MUST watch the fight when it's available (however, for $12, it's worth it). I am suggesting, however, that Butlerites appreciate what they have while they have it. What Minto has already accomplished is phenomenal, and it's time for everyone celebrate him.

Chances are, you'll never see another one like him.

NOTE: The closest thing I have seen to Brian Minto was Bird, in 6th grade gym class, taking a hockey stick to the head of a classmate that was heckling him. True Story. And have I mentioned that we went to a Catholic grade school?

Brett Farve WAS out of the News for a Couple Weeks....

Brett Farve announced through one of his live-in ESPN reporters that he would need ankle surgery if he wanted to play in 2010. Via Pro Football Talk:

Favre told ESPN's Ed Werder that his left ankle, which he injured in the NFC Championship Game, has continued to be painful and swollen for months. Favre visited Dr. James Andrews, who told him surgery will be unavoidable if he wants to play again.

Favre indicated that he doesn't want the surgery but that he might have it because of his affection for the Vikings and his belief that they can win the Super Bowl.


Does anyone doubt he is playing in 2010 and was all along?  This is just the beginning of his latest attempt to "overcome the odds." I can already hear Jon Gruden and Mike Tirico on Monday Night Football talking about the offseason trials and tribulations Brett had to deal with...


The only thing more dramatic then Favre's back and forth is when Anthony and I attempt some kind of home/yard project together. The drama there involves whether we can actually get the project done in between sports arguments. If he would just admit he is wrong, everything would move much faster.

Fleury and the Eye Test

It is funny how Anthony and I totally switch philosophical sides when it comes to hockey. He becomes the stat guy while I talk about certain players passing the “eye test.” Fleury is one of those guys.


Save percentage in hockey is comparable to RBIs in baseball. It has a lot to do with your surroundings and how your teammates perform in front of you. This is proven by the fact that the guy who leads the league in save percentage in a given year is usually a guy playing on a "neutral zone trap" type team. Those teams tend to give up a lot of long shots but not very many good shots. Perfect example of a ton of shots that weren't good chances was the Capitals in game 7 the other night. Halak had an unreal save percentage but never made what you would call a memorable save.


Meanwhile, getting back to Fleury, it all comes back to the fact that defense within the Penguins organization has been optional since ....well, forever. They are more interested in pushing forward and scoring goals. Its been especially atrocious this year. As a result, Fleury gets "hung out to dry" more than any goalie I have ever seen (at least on a good team) by defenders who should probably just give up and be wingers (Alex Goligoski anyone?). He may face 25 shots in a game but 24 of them will be GREAT scoring chances. The three overtime game against Ottawa in game 5 was the classic case. The Pens controlled play the majority of that game but couldn't do much to generate solid scoring chances. However, Ottawa got a number of odd man breaks that forced MAF to make great saves. Those break outs only count as one or two shots.


Bottom line is...Stats just don't tell you as much in hockey as they do in baseball. There is nothing in the box score for the play Sidney Crosby made in the crease in the Ottawa series. There is no stat to show how much better Fleury has become at handling the puck behind the net as his career has gone on. He has gone from being about as comfortable looking as my Alaskan Malamute in 90 degree heat to it being almost second nature. On the other hand, you can determine almost anything that happened in a baseball game somewhere in the box score or on a site like Fangraphs.com.


One final note.. Don't let Anthony convince you that Marc-Andre Fleury is the only goalie he has ever "doubted." This goes back as far Tom Barrasso. If Marty Brodeur was in goal for the Pens, he would still be complaining about his "terrible" play in the Olympics. MAF would probably need to go 82-0 with a 98% save percentage to appease Anthony. Crosby also tends to be a target of Anthony, but we will get back to that some other time.

Typical chance on MAF, Notice the large number of Penguin players around the net protecting him...

Dino's

I'll be headed to Dino's in Latrobe, PA, tonight to watch the Pens game against Montreal.

Is there a better sports restaurant/bar in the area? I truly don't think so. Rick's Sports Bar in Export is solid, but I've had better service at a self-checkout line at Giant Eagle. ("Please rescan your item. Please place your item in the bag. Please wait." Somehow, even though it does it to everyone, it's still embarassing when the self-checkout error light blinks)

Dino's offers good food at a decent price, a great atmosphere (tons of huge t.v.'s, an arcade, a bar, the whole shebang), and really good service*. Granted, I'm still bitter about getting carded last time I was there, but I guess she was just doing her job.

Screw it, I'm getting her fired tonight. I'm THIRTY freaking years old.

Now, if you ask Bird what constitutes good food in a great atmosphere, he's going to tell you that PNC Park is the place to be.

But take my side on this one. Instead of wasting your money going down to PNC, parking, walking to the game, spending a fortune on food, and leaving depressed....just sit at home, eat a home cooked meal, and watch The Three Stooges on t.v. You and your wallet will be full, and you'll be just as entertained by Moe and Larry's comedy as you will be by this year's battling Bucs.

Or just check out Dino's. And Remember to order your wings a little extra sloppy (like the Pirates on the basepaths, baby...)

* UPDATE: It figures that after I blogged good things about this place, we got treated like home invaders because we asked for a table for 12. Next time, I'm just going to McDonald's.

Fluery & Bird vs. Anthony and STATS!!!

Marc Andre Fleury. Just another human being...and a HUGE source of disagreement between Bird and I.

First of all, I love how the morning talkshow hosts on 93.7 "The Fan" dismiss Fleury bashers like we're 9-11 conspiracy theorists. Personally, I love bashing Fleury because I can prove he's not great. And as long as it is being shoved down my throat that he's elite, I'll continue to prove people wrong.

I'm going to take a page out of Bird's argument handbook. I'm going to use stats to back up my argument.

The two most telling statistics for a goaltender are save percentage and goals against average (GAA). In the 2009-2010 regular season, Fleury's GAA was 2.65 (ranking him 24th amongst all qualifying NHL goaltenders in the 30 team league), and his save percentage was .905% (he was not in the top 30 in the NHL for this. How does that happen? Well, some backup netminders who qualified based on games played ALSO had a better save percentage than Fleury). Fleury's save percentage ranked 53rd, total, out of all goaltenders that played in the NHL this year.

The Penguins backup goaltender, Brent Johnson, had a better save percentage than Fleury. And Johnson sucks.

Flower (brilliant nickname) was also pulled from games 8 times this past season. Is that elite?

Here's where Fleury supporters get crazy. They'll argue that Fleury is a great bounce-back goalie. Are you kidding me? Is that a good thing? If true, that means Fleury essentially needs destroyed in order to raise his level of play. In a playoff series, if you need to "bounce back," that suggests you already probably single-handedly cost your team a game. Remember, there are only a maximum of 7 games in a series, so every game means a TON. Why shouldn't you ALWAYS have your game face on? The great goaltenders do.

In the Ottawa series, I've heard a lot of Penguins fans give Fleury credit for playing extremely well after game 1. Really? Again, to beat a dead horse, why is it okay for him to get shelled just so he can raise his level of play? Of the 8 remaining goaltenders in the playoffs, Fleury has the worst save percentage so far (.890%) and is 6th in GAA (2.75).

Fleury should thank God he has Sidney Crosby on his team. Besides making a save in Game 1 versus Ottawa, Crosby does enough offensively for the Pens that they can afford to deal with Fleury's inconsistencies and outscore opponents when needed (see the 7-4 win vs. Ottawa as an example).

All of that said...I don't think Fleury is terrible. I just think he's about average. He makes some pretty awesome saves and allows some pretty soft goals. He's at an age where he should be in his prime, but his play just hasn't been very good this year. I'm hoping he decides to play great every night, and that he doesn't need a shlacking (remember the 5-0 loss to Detroit last year) in order to play great (remember games 6 and 7 vs. Detroit last year?)

The next time someone says Fleury isn't all that great, don't just dismiss it because he's won a Stanley Cup or because he seems like a nice kid. Remember, the Steelers won a Superbowl with Mitch Berger, too. Just sayin'

The stats don't lie. Flower is average.

Dotel vs. Small Sample Size

Anthony hates closers more than any position in sports. He loves Evan Meek now, but will hate him once he becomes the closer and doesn't go 1-2-3 every outing.

Octavio Dotel's start has all the makings of a small sample size/luck issue. Right now he has thrown just 9 1/3 innings. A couple reasons why his struggles will not keep up:

-He has 12 strikeouts in those innings. This is slightly above his career rate of 11 Ks per 9 innings. He hasn't suddenly lost anything on his fastball or forgotten how to pitch.

-He has a .462 Batting average on balls in play against. This is the batting average of the hitters he has faced if you take out the home runs and strike outs. Basically, the balls that are in play for the fielders to make or not make a play on. Major league average is .300. Anything dramatically above or below is considered lucky and likely unable to mantain over the course of a season.

-His homerun per fly ball rate is about double his career average while giving up about the same percentage of fly balls he has over his career. Considering he is throwing just as hard as ever, this is another stat that is very unlikely to continue.

If you combine that with the fact that he most of that 10+ ERA comes from two disastrous non-save situation outings against the Brewers (18.90 era in 3 innings vs Milwaukee), I think Dotel will be just fine. Even the save he did blow against Milwaukee on Wednesday was due to a very inconsistent strike zone from the umpire and terrible defense (that wasn't ruled an error) by Aki Iwamura.

The last thing the Pirates (and Anthony) should be doing is worrying about Octavio Dotel.

Stat Sources:
MLB.com Player Page
First Inning Player Page

Don't Ask, Dotel

It's 6:18 a.m., and I need to get ready for work, so I'll make this quick.

I don't miss Matt Capps. I considered him to be overrated even when his stats were exemplary. Plus, he's fat. (not that there's anything wrong with that)

But holy freaking crap...Octavio Dotel has been awful. I can see having an ERA around 4.00 because of a bad outing or two.

Dude's ERA is 10.61. For those of you who don't understand ERA, that means he allows 10.61 runs per 9 innings of pitching. Allow me to translate: he sucks. Bad.

It should be noted, too, that last night it was Evan Meek who saved the game for the Bucs vs. the Dodgers. Pirates led 2-0 in the 9th, and Meek got the nod. (Evan Meek has been a monster this season so far. His ERA is .060)

That's not exactly a glowing endorsement of Dotel by his manager, regardless of what excuses they'll probably use in today's newspapers. I guess he can't blow the game for you if you don't ask him to pitch. Believe it or not, John Russell made the right call last night.

Buccos are now 10-12.