Octavio Dotel's start has all the makings of a small sample size/luck issue. Right now he has thrown just 9 1/3 innings. A couple reasons why his struggles will not keep up:
-He has 12 strikeouts in those innings. This is slightly above his career rate of 11 Ks per 9 innings. He hasn't suddenly lost anything on his fastball or forgotten how to pitch.
-He has a .462 Batting average on balls in play against. This is the batting average of the hitters he has faced if you take out the home runs and strike outs. Basically, the balls that are in play for the fielders to make or not make a play on. Major league average is .300. Anything dramatically above or below is considered lucky and likely unable to mantain over the course of a season.
-His homerun per fly ball rate is about double his career average while giving up about the same percentage of fly balls he has over his career. Considering he is throwing just as hard as ever, this is another stat that is very unlikely to continue.
If you combine that with the fact that he most of that 10+ ERA comes from two disastrous non-save situation outings against the Brewers (18.90 era in 3 innings vs Milwaukee), I think Dotel will be just fine. Even the save he did blow against Milwaukee on Wednesday was due to a very inconsistent strike zone from the umpire and terrible defense (that wasn't ruled an error) by Aki Iwamura.
The last thing the Pirates (and Anthony) should be doing is worrying about Octavio Dotel.
Stat Sources:
MLB.com Player Page
First Inning Player Page
If only Charlie Morton could take back that 10 run inning last season, his ERA as a Pirate would've been in the 3's.
ReplyDeleteAnd if Trevor Hoffman didn't face Ryan Doumit this year, he might not be considered over-the-hill all of the sudden.
If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...