Properly Evaluating the Jason Bay Trade

July 31st, 2008. The Pirates trade Jason Bay to the Red Sox. The Red Sox send Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers and Craig Hansen/Brandon Moss to the Pirates. The Dodgers send Andy Laroche and Bryan Morris to the Pirates.

The trade was initially viewed as a win for the Pirates by the national media. However, because of Moss' struggles, a freak nerve disorder to Hansen, Morris' rough 2009, and Laroche not being Mike Schmidt at 3B in his first year in the majors (not to mention being the brother of a guy who wasn't the most popular Bucco), it has seemingly been "officially" ruled a disaster of epic proportions by most.

However, I do not think it is that simple. As trades for multiple prospects often do over time, this one might ultimately end up in the Bucs' favor after all.

How you ask? An update on the important players in the trade:

-Jason Bay left the Red Sox in Winter 2009 and signed with the Mets. All in all, the Red Sox got what they expected offensively from Bay, but watched him play defense that can be nicely described as "statuesque" in the tiny Fenway Park LF. Not so nicely put...he made Manny Ramirez look like Roberto Clemente out there. The Red Sox were unwilling to offer the number of years Bay wanted due to concerns they had regarding his knees. I think its fair to say the Pirates should not have kept a guy with questionable knees to patrol the giant LF at PNC Park for years to come, no matter what he brought offensively. Well, at least not for the money the Mets gave him. By the way, the 31 year old Bay has a .774 OPS and 1 homerun so far in 2010.

-Andy Laroche seems to only be getting better and at age 26 should be just now coming into his prime. He is hitting .323 with a .397 OBP in 2010. If he stays anywhere near those numbers (or even .280 with a .350 or so OBP) after a likely move to 2B when Pedro Alvarez comes up, he could be an all star and top five second baseman in the National League. 2B who can hit are not easy to find. From a pure "Wins above Replacement Player" view, Laroche added 2.5 wins to the Pirates total in 2009. He could end up close to the 5.0 wins Bay added to Boston last year by the time 2010 is over.

-Bryan Morris may have turned the corner. After a rough 2009 that included a short team imposed suspension, he has been almost unhittable in 2010. He has a 0.98 ERA in 27 2/3 innings with 26 Ks and 3 walks. Looking at his numbers, the suspension might actually have been the wake up call he needed. He will soon be in AA and could be on target for a late 2011 call up. He just turned 23 in March.

So in 2011 or 2012, the Pirates could very well have an above average starting 2B and a #2 or #3 starter (anything from Moss or Hansen is a bonus) for a guy who was involved with one playoff series victory in Boston and likely had no future in Pittsburgh. That seems like a pretty good trade return to me.

Neil Huntington only had one great trading chip -more on that some other time- is his quest to rebuild the Pirates. He cashed it in and I think there is a good chance he ultimately has the last laugh.....